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Jose Altuve is starting to look like a f
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Cooperstown Chancesexamines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. This week: Jose Altuve.
Who he is: Jose Altuve is coming into his own. Already a three-time All Star who just turned 26 on May 6, the diminutive Astros second baseman is having the best year of his career. The difference? Newlydiscovered power.
Altuves been a hit machine, averaging 192 hits a season over his first four full years in the majors. But hes averaged just eight home runs in that span. Altuve blo somed somewhat as a power hitter last year with 15 dingers just six shy of his career total entering the 2015 season.
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Altuves primary value entering this season was an ability to hit for contact, run the bases and hold down an infield position for a young team that looks poised to thrive for years to come. A J Brown T Shirts Sometimes, infielders like Altuve can play key roles for good teams but wind up underrated for lack of gaudy power numbers. They become Lou Whitaker or Willie Randolph or Frank White, all second basemen who have their Hall of Fame supporters but face long odds of getting in.
This season, though, Altuve has nine home runs and is on-pace, at least for now, for 44 home runs, to go with 108RBIs and a .323batting average. If the Astros improve from last place, Altuve could be a viable candidate for American League MVP. And while its far from a sure thing just yet, Altuve also is starting to look like he could be a serious Hall of Fame candidate down the road.
Cooperstown chances: 50 percent
Why: To be sure, Altuve already looked like he was po sibly on the Hall of Fame path, finishing last year with 830 hits for his first five seasons. According to the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool, 101 players have collected at least 800 hits through their age-25 seasons. Forty-two of these men are in the Hall of Fame as players, 13 are active and 46 are retired. The last group includes likely Hall of Famers such as Derek Jeter, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell.
Granted, having a lot of hits early in ones career is no guarantee of a future Hall of Fame plaque. Vada Pinson Steve McNair Jerseys , Cesar Cedeno and Buddy Lewis each topped 900 hits by their 25th birthdays, with each falling far short of Cooperstown for different reasons (injuries, personal problems, and World War II, respectively.) Any number of factors can turn a young, potential Hall of Famer into an also-ran. But its clear that by at least one measure, Altuves already in rare company.
Other factors show the pace Altuve is on. Baseball researcher Dan Hirsch noted:
Through age 26 season:Jose Altuve:.306/.346/.425, 45 HR, 868 H, 369 R, 179 SBRod Carew:.309/.357/.404, 23 HR, 845 H, 367 R, 58 SB
Dan Hirsch (@DanHirsch)
Sabermetrically, Altuve has ... her to go for Cooperstown, averaging a good but not great 3.9 Wins Above Replacement per 650 plate appearances so far for his career. In other words, hes no Mike Trout, whos already more or le s a lock for the Hall of Fame. Baseball researcher Adam Darowski has Trout to his Hall of Stats. Darowski has Altuve . (Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated doesnt have Altuve remotely close to Cooperstown either with his stat JAWS, rating Altuve as the .)
The good news for Altuve is that if Trout shows anything, its that a player can a semble a Hall of Fame case in a hurry. Trout, of course, will need another four years in the majors to hit the required 10-season minimum for Cooperstown, same as Altuve. But the 28.2 Wins Above Average that Trout compiled from his second through his fifth season in the majors is better than, wait for it, 62 Hall of Fame players. At this point, its going to be harder for Trout to screw up his Hall of Fame case than cruise the rest of his career toward a plaque. Hes 24 years old and already has his legacy secured. Hes baseballs Orson Welles.
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Can Altuve become the next Trout? Its dangerous to project small groups of stats over an entire season, since players often regre s to their means. That said, just Austin Fort Jerseys for the sake of argument, lets consider if Altuve stays on the pace hes been on through the early weeks of this season, 2Wins Above Average over 33games entering Sunday. That projects to 9.8Wins Above Average for the full season. Even if Altuve regre ses a little to, say, 7 Wins Above Average for the year, itd probably still leave him in MVP contention. Hed just need another three years to be at the point Trout is now.
Altuve wouldnt be the first short-statured Astros second baseman to blo som past his 25th birthday. Joe Morgan was probably among the most underrated players in baseball when the Astros dealt him for Lee May and others in November 1971. Hed been a two-time All Star to this point and his average in Houston of 5 WAR per 650 plate appearances suggests he might have deserved better recognition. All the same, Morgan didnt look like anyones future Hall of Famer or the centerpiece of a trade when Houston discarded him.
Over his first five seasons in Cincinnati, Morgan racked up 37.8 Wins Above Average and two National League Most Valuable Player awards. The Big Red Machine had a lot of great players, though maybe it wouldnt have risen to the same heights without Morgan. Bill James rates Morgan as the best player of the mid- Malik Willis Jerseys 1970s, though even he couldnt have seen it coming.
Altuve, like Morgan, could be entering the salad years of his career, ones poised to make him a legend and help carry his team to new heights. The best thing is that Altuve doesnt need a change of scenery to make it happen. This time, Houston could get to reap the rewards.
Cooperstown Chancesexamines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. Series author andSporting News contributor Graham Womack writes regularly about the Hall of Fame and other topics related to baseball history at his website,. Follow him on Twitter: .
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